Reading the economic tea leaves
Published 5:38 pm Saturday, July 11, 2015
Harper Bradsaw reports slight business growth in the past year or so at Harper’s Table, the higher-end restaurant he opened in downtown Suffolk three years ago at the end the month.
“We’re still trying to work out the magic formula of what’s the right price point — what will encourage people to come to see us more,” he said.
He cites the high failure rate of new businesses around him. Harper’s Table is doing fine and here to stay, he said. He hopes new businesspeople will come in with better financial backing for establishments that will also become fixtures.
“Unfortunately, there have been so many mom and pop-type businesses folks come in, give it a year or two, then it goes by the wayside. I would welcome more restaurants, more bars and more retail.”
A lower-trending unemployment rate, increasing interest from companies considering locating here and new residential developments suggest the local economy is picking up. But businesspeople, like Bradshaw, would like to see things fired up a bit more. Some report that business hasn’t picked up all that much — if at all — since the recession.
Kevin Hughes, the city’s economic development director, says that one local economic indicator has improved considerably: visits to his department by companies considering local commercial property for projects.
This year so far, Hughes notes, 45 “prospect visits” are more than double the 22 that occurred in the first half of last year.
How many of those are converted is a difficult question, according to Hughes. It may take a year before it’s known whether an interested company actually sets up in Suffolk. “Of those 45 visits, the vast majority — if not all — are continuing to move forward,” he said.
New development is more palpable in North Suffolk because it’s more geared toward retail, Hughes said. “That’s something everyone touches every day.”
While the recent opening of Taste Unlimited in Harbour View is one example of that, there are some recent non-retail examples of continued progress in North Suffolk. At Bennett’s Creek, Napolitano Homes is starting to build The Cove off Shoulder’s Hill Road, with 63 single-family homes.
Vince Napolitano, its president, said it’s the final phase of the company’s Bennett’s Creek Square development.
It started with The Vineyards, involving 100 residences in 25 fourplexes, which was followed by The Townes, encompassing 18 townhomes. There’s also some commercial, which has been sold to other developers.
Napolitano reports more interest recently from families looking to buy.
“Originally, it was pretty slow,” he said. “That was during the recession. In the last 2 ½ years, sales have gotten back to what I would call more of a steady pace.
“We are still far from being out of the woods yet, but it’s certainly going in the right direction.”
In Chuckatuck, a new developer has restarted Summer Creek Estates, a subdivision of 55 lots three acres or slightly more that stalled during the recession at the end of the previous decade.
People are less likely to notice when a new manufacturing operation sets up, according to Hughes, who says there has been an increase of those in central Suffolk.
Retail development has always been driven by rooftops, he said, and besides those in North Suffolk, he points to Hillpoint, off Godwin Boulevard, and the recent apartment projects in older downtown buildings.
“Absolutely,” he said when asked if the 224-apartment complex planned for the former Obici Hospital site on North Main Street would spur new commercial projects. “Retailers’ number-one question is, ‘How many people live in the area,’” he said. “And then the next question is, ‘How many people are coming?’”
According to Eddie White of Starr Motors, statistics suggest that when someone buys a new house, they are likely to purchase a new car nine months later.
White says used car sales have been picking up, but sales of new cars are down three to four percent in the past year.
“We are up just a little bit (overall) for the year,” White said. “Service and parts are up. We opened a collision center about two years ago, and that seems to be doing well.”
According to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Suffolk’s unemployment rate crept up in May to 5.5 percent from 5.2 percent in April. After the recession, local unemployment peaked at 7.9 percent, hitting that level June 2010 and again in August 2011.
Sterling Spruill of Suffolk-based Home Projects Inc. says more folks have discretionary money for the decks, outdoor entertaining areas and other smaller construction jobs his company specializes in. But they have less of it, he added.
For instance, Spruill said, instead of $10,000 to spend on an outdoor kitchen, they now have $7,500 or $6,000. He also said there are more businesses like his out there now, and costs like insurance and payroll are rising.
The combined effect, according to Spruill, is that prospective clients are shopping around a lot more and going with the lowest bid. His profit margins have tightened considerably.
Nine or 10 years ago, Spruill said, he was doing 12-percent profit on annual revenues of $300,000 to $350,000, and now it’s 6 percent on $225,000 to $240,000.
“I’ve had to develop almost an assembly line-type process to drive my prices down, because I was losing bids,” he said.
Doing more with less is a general trend, according to Hughes. “They have figured out how to do more with the existing workforce, rather than hiring,” he said.
Ultimately, Hughes said, despite an unemployment rate that looks a lot better than it did several years ago, his department wants to see more folks working, and that’s going to take more new companies and existing ones hiring more.