The Science Behind Luck: How Offshore Casino Odds Are Calculated?

Published 5:54 pm Tuesday, February 11, 2025

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With gambling, you can both win and lose. Of course, you hope to win, for that little bit of luck, for that one big hit, for the best chances of winning. And you win, a lot even. But the chance of losing is the greatest. Statistically speaking, the casino always wins. After all, that is the business model.  

The starting point for the player to start playing should therefore always be recreational. But it is still interesting to know how odds work. Who knows, you might be able to take advantage of it. Below we will go into more detail about how odds are calculated in non GamStop casinos and what you can expect with different games, such as slot machines, table games, and sports betting. If you’re interested in exploring more options, you can check out the top bookmakers outside GamStop for a wider range of betting opportunities.

House Advantage at Non GamStop Casinos

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A casino without GamStop is just a business and has to make a profit. The profit they make is called the House Edge. This is the percentage of the bet that goes to the casino.  

For example, if the house edge on a live blackjack game is 0.5%, this means that for every €100 wagered, the casino earns €0.50.  

If the house edge on a physical slot machine in an arcade is 15%, this means that for every €100 thrown into the machine, €15 remains for the arcade owner. For a seamless gaming experience, you can use the Skyhills Casino fast login to quickly access your account and enjoy their offerings.

RTP or Payout Percentage

On the other hand, we have the payout percentage, this concept is more familiar. The Return To Player (RTP) is the percentage that is paid out on average. The RTP and the House Edge together are always 100%.

For example, if the RTP of an online slot machine is 96.5%, this means that if the player bets €100, he will receive an average of €96.50. Note that these are averages that have been calculated over a very long series. The RTP does not offer any guarantees for individual rounds.

Now we hear you thinking, but I always end up on 0, I never win that much. How does that work? That is because the player generally continues to play. Suppose you bet €100 on a game where the RTP is 98%. So you receive €98 back. You bet that €98 again and you receive 98% of that back that is €96.04. Then you continue to play with that and receive €94.11 of that. And so it goes on. On average, measured over a very long series of games, the casino always wins and the player loses.

But how exactly is this RTP, the odds of winning, calculated?

Online Slots & Odds of Winning

The RTP of an online slot machine is set by the game developer in the software. This also has to do with RNG, the Random Number Generator, which is based on an algorithm. This ensures that the game is random and fair. That the player plays a fun, varied game that is fair to both the player and the casino.

Both the RNG and the RTP are tested by labs that specialize in testing games. If a game is approved, it receives a certificate from a gaming testing lab.

The average RTP of online slots is between 95% – 98%. With physical slots, the chances of winning are much lower, around 85%. The establishment has to compensate for the high overhead costs that you don’t have online.

Calculating the Odds of Winning Table Games

With table games in a live casino, it is different again. There is no software involved to determine the chances of winning, these are determined by the game itself. But these are also shown in an RTP.

The odds of winning at table games have everything to do with statistics. If you have some knowledge of statistics, you will understand the games better and you will be able to determine your strategy better, for example, blackjack.

Several Factors Influence Your Chances of Winning

The chance of winning depends on what you bet on or your hand, and is compensated by a payout. The higher your chance of winning, the lower your payout.

Let’s take roulette as an example. If you bet on red, you have a greater chance of winning (almost 50%) than if you bet on number 16, which is only 2.7%. But if the ball lands on 16, your payout is much higher than if it is red. The house edge in roulette is always in the 0 (European roulette) or 00 (American roulette) (green), you cannot bet on that, this is the profit for the casino. The house edge in American roulette is therefore greater than in European roulette.

The RTP can also depend on your strategy. An RTP that is indicated by the game provider for example in blackjack, only applies if you keep the optimal strategy. You have to play smart. If you play ‘stupid’, the RTP for you is of course lower.

The average RTP for blackjack is around 99.5% and for roulette 98.65%. These chances of winning are therefore significantly higher than with slot machines!

Sports Betting

The chances of winning at a sportsbook are shown in odds or quotes. This indicates how many times your stake will be paid out if your bet comes true. The more likely it is to come true, the lower the odds and the less you get.

The Odds Make or Break Your Chances of Winning

The odds are calculated by so-called ‘Sports Trader’ who work for a sportsbook. An online casino either has its own sportsbook or they use a platform from a sportsbook provider. Traders are people who firstly have a lot of knowledge about the sport and competition in question and secondly they are very well versed in mathematics. Besides the odds themselves, it is also important that you understand the description of the bet well, there can sometimes be some confusion about this.

In the case of a football match, for example, traders look at how the teams have performed in the past, which players are in the line-up, which injuries there have been, and whether the game is played at home or away. With this, they determine the odds of a certain betting market. Once these have been determined, you can start betting before the match starts, but also during the match itself.

You understand that the chances of winning change continuously, the odds are also adjusted continuously. Once you have filled in and confirmed your bet slip, the odds can no longer change for you.

Conclusion

Of course, a lot of it comes down to luck, but the importance of knowing the odds of winning should not be flattened out. These differ per game and depend on what you bet on and your strategy. So you do have some influence on your chances of winning and your final payout.

Disclaimer: Remember to play responsibly. You must be 21 years old or older to gamble. If you or someone you know has a problem with gambling help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.