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National Hurricane Center Hurricane Sandy Advisory No. 29A, 2 p.m. Oct. 29

Published 3:46pm Monday, October 29, 2012

Bulletin

Hurricane sandy intermediate advisory number 29a

Nws national hurricane center miami fl al182012

200 pm edt mon oct 29 2012

 

Hurricane Sandy tropical storm force wind probabilities

…sandy moving more quickly toward southern new jersey…

…landfall expected early this evening…

 

 

Summary of 200 pm edt…1800 utc…information

———————————————-

Location…38.3n 73.1w

About 110 mi…180 km se of atlantic city new jersey

About 175 mi…285 km sse of new york city

Maximum sustained winds…90 mph…150 km/h

Present movement…nw or 305 degrees at 28 mph…44 km/h

Minimum central pressure…940 mb…27.76 inches

 

 

Watches and warnings

——————–

Changes with this advisory…

 

None

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect…

 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

* north of surf city to duck north carolina

* pamlico and albemarle sounds

 

In addition…hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of

The coast between chincoteague virginia and chatham massachusetts.

This includes the tidal potomac from cobb island to smith point…

The middle and upper chesapeake bay…delaware bay…and the coasts

Of the northern delmarva peninsula…new jersey…the new york city

Area…long island…connecticut…and rhode island.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds are expected north of chatham to

Merrimack river massachusetts…the lower chesapeake bay…and

South of chincoteague to duck north carolina…the northern

Endpoint of the tropical storm warning.

 

Other coastal and inland watches and warnings are in effect for

These areas. Please see statements from local national weather

Service forecast offices.

 

For storm information specific to your area…including possible

Inland watches and warnings…please monitor products issued by

Your local national weather service forecast office.

 

 

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

——————————

At 200 pm edt…1800 utc…the center of hurricane sandy was located

By an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and noaa doppler

Weather radars to be near latitude 38.3 north…longitude 73.1

West. Sandy is now moving toward the northwest near 28 mph…

44 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue through this

Afternoon and evening until landfall occurs…followed by a turn

Toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track…the

Center of sandy is expected to make landfall along or just south of

The southern new jersey coast by early evening.

 

Reports from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum

Sustained winds remain near 90 mph…150 km/h…with higher gusts.

Sandy is expected to transition into a frontal or wintertime low

Pressure system later today or tonight. However…this transition

Will not be accompanied by a weakening of the system…and little

Change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Sandy is forecast

To weaken after moving well inland.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles…280 km…

Mainly southwest of the center…and tropical-storm-force winds

Extend outward up to 485 miles…780 km. Sustained winds to

Tropical storm force are occurring from southern new england through

Long island and long island sound…and southward along the coasts

Of new jersey…delaware…and eastern virginia…and including all

Of the chesapeake and delaware bays. A weatherflow instrument

Recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph…87 km/h…with a

Gust to 63 mph…102 km/h…on long island at eatons neck new york.

Also…a university of connecticut buoy located in western long

Island sound recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph…61

Km/h…with a gust to 54 mph…87 km/h…at a height of 10 feet

Above the water.

 

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from

Reconnaissance aircraft is 940 mb…27.76 inches.

 

 

Hazards affecting land

———————-

Wind…gale/tropical storm force winds are already

Occurring over portions of the mid-atlantic states from north

Carolina northward to southern new england. Gale-force winds are

Expected to continue to spread over other portions of the

Mid-atlantic states over the next couple of hours.

Hurricane-force winds could reach the mid-atlantic states…

Including new york city and long island…by late this afternoon.

 

It is important to note that winds affecting the upper floors of

High-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near

Ground level.

 

Storm surge…the combination of an extremely dangerous storm surge

And the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be

Flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following

Depths above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high

Tide…

 

Nc north of surf city including pamlico/albemarle sounds…4 to 6 ft

Se va and delmarva including lower chesapeake bay…2 to 4 ft

Upper and middle chesapeake bay…1 to 3 ft

Long island sound…raritan bay…and new york harbor…6 to 11 ft

Elsewhere from ocean city md to the ct/ri border…4 to 8 ft

Ct/ri border to the south shore of cape cod including buzzards

Bay and narragansett bay…3 to 6 ft

Cape cod to the ma/nh border including cape cod bay…2 to 4 ft

Ma/nh border to the u.s./canada border…1 to 3 ft

 

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

And the tidal cycle…and can vary greatly over short distances.

Given the large wind field associated with sandy…elevated water

Levels could span multiple tide cycles resulting in repeated and

Extended periods of coastal and bayside flooding. In addition…

Elevated waters could occur far removed from the center of sandy.

Furthermore…these conditions will occur regardless of whether

Sandy is a tropical or post-tropical cyclone. For information

Specific to your area…please see products issued by your local

National weather service office.

 

Rainfall…rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected over far

Northeastern north carolina with isolated maximum totals of 8

Inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected

Over portions of the mid atlantic states…including the delmarva

Peninsula…with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of

5 inches are possible from the southern tier of new york state

Northeastward through new england.

 

Snowfall..snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are expected in the

Mountains of west virginia with locally higher totals today through

Wednesday. Snowfall of 1 to 2 feet is expected in the mountains of

Southwestern virginia to the kentucky border…with 12 to 18 inches

Of snow expected in the mountains near the north carolina/tennessee

Border and in the mountains of western maryland.

 

Surf…dangerous surf conditions will continue from florida through

New england for the next couple of days.

 

 

Next advisory

————-

Next complete advisory…500 pm edt.

Tropical cyclone updates will be issued at 300 and 400 pm edt.

 

$$

Forecaster stewart

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