White Christmas? A snowflake’s chance
Published 8:17 pm Saturday, December 20, 2014
The year has reached that point at which many are dreaming of a white Christmas. Passing through the postal system, cards proclaiming season’s greetings show Santa’s sleigh shooting across snowy landscapes and snowmen wrapped in scarves.
But what are the chances of a white Christmas in Suffolk? About the same as any other year, which is about 5 percent, according to a National Weather Service meteorologist.
The last time Suffolk experienced snow on Christmas was in 2010. Meteorologist Jon McGee, based in the NWS office in Wakefield, said about two inches fell on Dec. 25 that year.
The snow kept falling into Dec. 26, and a lot of Hampton Roads ended up with roughly a foot of the fluffy white stuff, according to McGee.
Normal or slightly above-normal snowfall is predicted for Suffolk for the rest of winter, McGee said. The city receives an average of about seven inches of snow annually.
“You can expect probably seven inches of snow,” McGee said. “Or a few inches more.”
That prediction has a lot to do with weather cycles, McGee says. Forecasters say the chance of El Nino developing this winter is about 65 percent, which McGee said would make the jet stream pattern favorable to bringing above-normal levels of moisture.
Combine that with a couple of cold snaps, he said, and you have a strong chance of slightly above average snowfall.
Unsurprisingly, the highest chances of a white Christmas across the mainland U.S. are in the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the Rockies and parts of New England, according to Paul Pastelok, an expert long-range forecaster with AccuWeather.com.
Suffolk’s Department of Public Works is taking no chances this winter, according to its director, Eric Nielsen.
The department’s snow-fighting stockpiles include 1,600 tons of salt, 3,200 tons of sand and 5,000 gallons of mixed brine, Nielsen said in a Dec. 3 update to City Council. Equipment at the ready includes 28 plows with salt spreaders and three brine machines and trucks.
Each brine truck can apply 1,000 gallons at a time, blanketing roadways with 25 to 60 gallons of brine per lane mile.
A brine machine can pump out 800 gallons of the mixture per hour, and the storage tank holds 5,000 gallons.
Priority roads for brine treatment, with the aim of starting 48 hours in advance of storms, are routes 10, 13, 17, 32, 58 and 460.
“Ready on a moment’s notice to get that call, whether 2 in the morning or 12 in the afternoon,” are 122 public works employees, Nielsen said.
The department also has four strike teams, deployed when particularly bad conditions are projected, Nielsen said.
When operating, the teams are split between the North Suffolk Public Safety Center and the King’s Fork Fire Station, with crews working 12-hour shifts.
In the past few months, all the snow gear has been tested, after inspections and any repairs, and operators conducted a dry run of snow-clearing routes.
Through March, the department’s roadway maintenance supervisors will be keeping a close eye on weather patterns and preparing to deploy resources according to department guidelines.
Under the city code, owners or occupants are required to clean snow from the sidewalk and gutter in front of their property within six hours after the snow stops falling, or six hours after sunrise if it stops falling at night.
There’s next to no chance of anyone having to shovel snow on Christmas, at least. The forecast calls for a sunny day with a high of 52.